Srpsko komunikolosko drustvo Serbian communication society

WHERE IS THE INTERNET GOING?


 The Questions: Where is going the Internet? Where is now the Internet? The
answer:
Internet is now in the centre of polemics between the big actors on the future of the global net. The creator of Internet - United states have started the ideao to Internet reform.
Earlier emerged ideas on an new Internet. But such ideas are soon drived back because from the existing techniques: elecstrons, chips and transistors is not possible to form another global net eycept th txisting.
The first conference on the Internet reform arranged Unated States and Great Britain named "London Conference on Syberspace" in London 1-2. November 2011.
To the conference partidipated ca. 60 states, including Russia, India, Japan, Germany, France and other states of Europe and Asia, eycept Chna.
The conference demonstrated that soon all counties, especially the big actors wich the reform of Internet. And this ist till now the only one result or the only one consensus of the participiants an not participiants of conference such as China.

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American continent connected.
The statement of United States:
At the London Conference only the United States, as the starter of the reform, have presented its concept of with main characteristics. The concept is based at following points:
1. Not-divisible Internet
2, Freedom of Internet
3. Security of Internet
To this points are addaed the next:
4. Respecting of human rights

5. Protection of authorship and intellectual property
6. Fight against internet crime.

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For sustainable Internet and the preventing the fragmentation, the U.S. statement is forecasting the etablishing of Global Internet Governance Forum. The Forim would be formed based at Global Consensus and would be made up of three determinating Factors;
1. Representatives of Goverments (Political sector)
2. Representatives of Economics (Privat sector)
3. Representatives of  Civilians (Users sector).

United States an United Kingdom have started a wide international action to ataain te Global Consensus ant to form the World Internet Forum The primary is to form the consensus and the responcible behaviour of all actors to create the fixed "rules of road" for preservation the peace and the stability (U.S. and U.K. Cooperation in Cyberspace/IIpDigital/http://iiiiiipdigital.usembasa.gov/teyttrans/20011/052011).

The statement of Russia and China
Russia and China demand the state control of Internet - the suverereignty in Cyberspace. At conference of Internationa Telecommunication Union, Russia advocated that "Cybersuvereignty is the Extending of Statesuvereignty in Cyberspace ... the member states must have rights to manage Internet within their own territories as to assign Internet domains" (http://www.dw.de).

Their of Internet future Russia an  China present at two wazs. One waz is going over ITU. Russia demands: the Internet management must bi tsaken away from multy- and transnational instances as it is International Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers and given to the ITU. The same demands China.
The second way of Russia and Cina is going over the United Nations. Russia nad Cina would be win the right for award of domains within their territories, Thus, China and Russia bring into the reform of Insternet United Nations too. For somebody it can bi a good solution, but ongoing it makes an additional obstacle. The obstacle is inefficiency and slownes of the U.N. within methods and ways solutions international questions and problem. According their structue The U:N: are at least capable for care and solution such megadynamic phenomen as it is the Internet. The main problem is that the Internet moves and develops so quick that evry agrement would be aut of date as soon as it bi attained..

The boath reform concepts and demands: Uniter States at one and Russia and Cina at the other side are in fact the result of fear from the supermedium Internet, in particular, from mobile Internet..
The "Arabic spring" named too "Digital earthquake" (knocking dowan dictatorships in Tunis, Egypt and Libya), the phenomen "Vikileaks" ect. have presented enormous power and the double sharacter of this edium. Rapid technoogical development make sstronger the power, especialy of individual users and cimultaneous decrease the power of states and holders of  political power.

Autocratic and despoting regimes fear of their existence and democratic world for their maintaince the digital infrasstsructure ( hackers,obstructions).

The concept of the ITU
The United Staates and allies have presented on outline for Internet reform, Russia and China only sugestions. Opposit to them, ITU have developed the comoete project for the feform an management of Internet in the future. The ITU project ist presented at the World Conference on International Communications in Dubai (UAE) 03.12.20 12.


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ITU is tshe first Internationa  organisation at all (etablished 1850). ITU has the gratest aspirations for Internet regulation and manegement. The ITU project is very close to thr statements of Cina and Russia as to more than 3/I4 states of tshe world. The ITU project "International Telecommunications Regulations" (ITR) suport 178 states. In the centre of Regulation is the development of "Information Society". The main document is the Declaration of the Principles with tree chaptere and 67 worthy  points. The declaration is adopted in Geneva 2003 and Tunis 2005 at the Conferenc in Dubai (UAR).

The Regulation includs all media.ITu presents the pose that its international competence is the regulation of all international standards and lowamaking. But, the content of the Regulation is far exceeding autentic competences and spreads over all informations and communications resources and valuable standards of human communications. This shows the basic Declaration of  Secretary General ITU on Cybersecurity and Climaate Changes
United States and allies blockade fragmentation and nationalisation of Internet
The ITU plan to asume the regulation and managment of Internet have supported 178 states including China and Russia. Baut, for United States and allies is it unacceptable.
The main negative particles of the ITU plan are:
- 1. The project predict the transfer of Internet menagement into the competence of states
- 2. The state suvereignty woult permit all kind of state repression and warlike steps as are: obstructions,      content control, Intsernets blockades (see: Internet Governance Project/http://www.internetgovernance.org).
- 3.The ITU project, especially the parth "International Telecommunications Regulation (ITR) is an insolvable problef for Internet, because the project dose not distinguish the regulation classic Telecommunications from communications in cyberspace.
- 4 ITU has not the competences and standards for cyberspace regulation and management..

Who needs and why the reform of Internet?
From the technological and human standpoint - the standpoint about 2,5 Billions users, Internet is till today the most exellent medium, which is ongoing developing.
Internet is operating at its technological standards and accoplish' needs and wishes of users. The question: who needs and why the Internet reform?
 The straight answer: The Internet reform demands the political factor. And the 'problem' Internet appeared within the political control of communication resources an floiws of informations and knowledges.
Th problem is the control impossibility this one supermedium as the virtual cyberspace.
Why the political problem? There are two answers: First, because the political factor is the first time confronted with a medium who is slipping out or has already slipped out of constrol  of power structures. Second,, because, the traditional power structures and states havae inherited promordial tradition of control and monopoly over human communications. This structures attempt to extend theirs domination and to prevent Internet to become independent.

On the other side, Internet is based at technological patterns, technological ethics, wishes and needs of users.
Although the Internet concept is  proposed by Unitde Stated and allies and is based at valuable komponents (consistency, freedom and security), the way of the reform is not realistic because also formaly attained global consensus of the reform would be practical unrealizable.

Global consensus is not possible nor within the globalisation neither within the opposit process of differentioation and confrontation. The globalisation is being carrying out in cyberspace, but simultaneous diversificatin too. However, developing of Internet and Mobile Internet, as the leading techological globalizators within  users, followed differentiation of wide proportions, starting from  individualisation to more complex  socjal structures.
The process of  dofferentiation  is being  exatending to the level of controntation of simple structures (individuals) to most complex structures: nations, states, religious, ideologies.

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The nationaliyation of Internet is not possoble becouse the Internet is technological independent

The nationalization ist the opposit concept to the Global consensus.The nationalizstion means the fragmentation of Internet based on state suvereignty within own territories. Oposition by United States and allies is marginal. The main obstacle  to the concept are powerfull and rapid even more powerfull technologies, who dictate  the global character of the cyberspace and the access to Internet. This obstacles do not permit the fragmentation of cyberspace according to political criterions. Competent for determination cyberspace are only technological standards.

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                                  Users give strong resisstence to nationalihation of Internet
The strong resistanceto the fragmentation of cyberspace  is being coming from users of Internet. The users structures, technoligical and systematic educated, operate according technological patterns. One of the ptterns is the technological neutrality. The neutrality offer to all users the equal possibilities ad equal communication suvereingnty as it had announced Jean d'Arsy before three decades (1983): "The resources  are in our hands. We do not more tu ask nobody".
Technological equipped with the Mobile Internet, the individual structure of users created "Digital Earthquake" as "Arabic Spring". The phenomen "Arabic Spring" has demonstrated the all powerlessness of political factors and powerlessness even of the most extreme diktatorshiipis, who have had in their hands the all powerlevers and powertools for repression and forces and the all classic media for frightening and manipulation.

From the presented standpoints, the future of Internet is traced. It is the technological independence. So, the analysis of the current circumstances  and disposition of power permits appointment of orderlist of facators who will fix the future od Internet:
- First, media technologies
- Second, users
- Third, holder of political power - global actors.


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The user is object of development of  media technologies
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The big actors: What is going on?!